President Donald Trump’s populist economic doctrine is about to face a reality check on the shores of the Great Lakes. After trade negotiations broke down late last week, the president announced new 50% tariffs on Canadian imports ranging from lumber and agricultural products to consumer electronics.
After Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that his country would begin imposing “dollar for dollar” retaliatory tariffs targeting U.S. steel, agricultural machinery, dairy, and appliances, Trump announced that an additional 50% tariff on Canadian cars, trucks, auto parts, and steel will take effect on Jan. 1, 2027.
Many Americans have tuned out the president’s trade rhetoric. Between Trump’s ever-changing decrees and multiple interventions by the courts, it is hard to keep track of which tariffs are currently active. Michiganders, however, will become acutely aware of the impacts of the “economics is fake” wing of the Republican Party. Canada is America’s largest trading partner and was the destination for 16.8% of all U.S. exports in 2024. The economic relationship between Michigan and Ontario goes far beyond bilateral trade — it is a single, deeply integrated, cross-border manufacturing ecosystem.
The North American auto industry does not operate like a traditional factory that receives huge shipments of parts and stores them for eventual use; production is highly synchronized. For the uninitiated, the “Just-in-Time Auto Corridor” represents far more than the Ambassador Bridge connecting Detroit and Windsor, Ontario. The “corridor” extends across the American Rust Belt and Southern Ontario with the goal of minimizing unused inventory and providing parts to factories when they need them. Components for a Big-Three (Ford, General Motors, Stellantis) vehicle may cross the Detroit River several times before completion. The Ford F-150, the top-selling vehicle in North America for the last four decades, is assembled in Dearborn, Michigan, and Kansas City, Missouri, while the popular 5.0-liter Coyote V8 engine is manufactured at Windsor’s Essex Engine Plant, and the truck’s transmission is built in Lavonia, Michigan. Novelis, headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, and owned by the multinational Indian corporation Hindalco Industries, supplies Ford with the aluminum needed for its F-series truck bodies manufactured at several locations, notably its Kingston, Ontario, plant.
Trump’s trade war will not only pass price hikes down to car-buyers, but it also risks manufacturing disruptions at Big-Three factories and beyond. Not including the Ohioans (my father-in-law and friends included), Hoosiers, and others who commute across state lines for work, 155,000 Michiganders work in auto manufacturing. “Any situation that affects trade with Canada hurts the state of Michigan more than any other state in the union.… Michigan’s auto parts suppliers are disproportionately exposed because our plants export more auto parts to Canada than auto parts suppliers in any other state,” said Jason Miller, Michigan State University professor of supply chain management.
Politically, Trump’s new trade war with our northern neighbors is just what the doctor ordered for Democrats. All of Michigan’s executive statewide seats are up for grabs, as is a U.S. Senate seat. The GOP’s long-standing polling edge on economics has evaporated in the wake of the president’s “liberation day” tariff fiasco, and Democrats will be quick to help voters connect high car prices, retail inflation, and potential local layoffs to federal trade policy. While protectionist rhetoric has resonated historically with unionized auto workers, the United Auto Workers and local union leadership are sensitive to supply chain disruptions that threaten shift cancellations. If Canadian retaliatory tariffs force downtime at assembly plants, UAW support for the GOP could dwindle rapidly.
DAN HANNAN: CANADA WILL WIN THIS TRADE WAR
Abdul el Sayed, the socialist and Islamist-supporting friend of Twitch streamer Hasan Piker, should have an uphill battle in a swing state like Michigan. The Democratic nominee to replace outgoing Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) currently leads former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, and that is before the new Canadian tariffs take effect in two weeks. Trump is risking losing an all-important Senate seat to a Marxist and relegating the citizens of Michigan to four more years of incompetent leftist governance, and for what?
Put aside your pride, Mr. President; we all have work to do.
Brady Leonard (@bradyleonard) is a writer, musician, and host of The No Gimmicks Podcast.