Quoting oneself usually smacks of self-aggrandizement. But I’ll make an exception to hold myself accountable. I wrote on March 31 that “it would be a debacle to pretend that ending the war much as it stands would be anything other than a failure.” President Donald Trump’s ceasefire is murky, so one can’t be certain, but the conflict seems to be ending where it stood back then and looks like a failure.
There are big plusses. The Iranian military and nuclear capabilities have been pummeled, although neither has been “completely destroyed,” as Vice President JD Vance claimed during his White House press briefing on Thursday.
Against that, however, are the facts that the Islamist regime is still in place — are the “pragmatists” really winning the argument, as Vance said? — its benighted people remain repressed; its neighbors remain justifiably anxious about the regional menace it poses; our greatest ally, Israel, continues to be under threat from Tehran’s Islamist terrorist proxies; and the world’s superpower has been bested at the negotiating table, accepting promises from habitual liars and granting them in return billions of dollars and maybe enhanced leverage over one of the most important waterways in the world. Even if none of the billions will come from our taxpayers, it’s still money to finance terrorism and prop up our death-to-America enemy.
It isn’t true, as Vance says, that “the only way the Iranians get any of those resources … is if they comply fully and change their behavior.” They are already getting millions — there are reports of several billions — and they have exposed the fact that America’s resolve under Trump, as under previous presidents, will quickly wither when faced with a more determined and resilient, even if less powerful, foe.
No one can take America’s place as the preeminent power in the Middle East — China is in no position to do so — but as much as the war demonstrated American military prowess, the ending of the war is heading toward a fiasco, with our nation’s international credibility open question, dependent on an extraordinary change of heart and character by the Iranian tyrants, which are frankly implausible.
Vance said in one interview this week, “The coolest thing about the progress we’ve made over the last few weeks is that you’re seeing people within the Iranian system say, ‘You know what, we recognize the way we’ve done business with the U.S. for 47 years is a mistake, let’s try something else.” It has the resonant ring of mockery, and Vance’s words read like a cardinal statement of American naivete in foreign policy.
UFC AND THE PROSTITUTION OF THE WHITE HOUSE
That is how America is being seen around the world today. To take one example, the French left-of-center newspaper, Le Monde, could not contain its glee and wrote, “Despite a shattered economy and severely weakened military capabilities, Iran is triumphant and refuses to back down. Despite the overwhelming superiority of its military, Washington has no choice but to acknowledge its strategic blunder. ‘There will be no deal with Iran other than unconditional surrender,’ wrote Donald Trump on March 6. He did not specify which country he was referring to.”
For those of us who supported Trump’s military action against Iran when he launched it in February, the current news makes for difficult reading.